Sunday, 31 July 2011

July Portfolio Update

Current Portfolio

Portfolio 1 (self)

Status: Unhealthy, need to reduce stock percentage

Stock 84.7%
  • Sabana
  • LippoMaple
  • Healthway
  • Capitalmall Asia
Investable Cash (exclude emergency fund + daily fund) 15.3%

Portfolio 2 (Joint)

Status: Waiting for good opportunity

Stock 14.6%
  • Cache
Investable Cash(exclude emergency fund) 85.4%

Will US default?

Saturday, 30 July 2011

News: Healthway

Singapore, 29th July 2011 – Healthway Medical Corporation Limited (the “Company” or
“Healthway”) is pleased to announce that the Health Promotion Board (“HPB”) has
awarded the Company a tender to provide on-site mental health screening services.
Under this pilot initiative spearheaded by HPB, Healthway nurses will conduct mental
health screenings for elderly residents at seven community locations including Hougang,
Woodlands and Choa Chu Kang.

Elderly residents above 50 years old will be screened by nurses using the Geriatric
Depression Scale, a validated screening tool. Based on the preliminary assessment, the
nurses will advise the participants accordingly, either to seek consultations with our onsite
Consultant Psychiatrists from Nobel Psychological Wellness Clinic, a specialist
practice of Healthway or seek further treatment at nearby polyclinics and community
counselling support services.

Dr Marcus Tan of Nobel Psychological Wellness Clinic said, “We are excited to be
involved in this meaningful HPB initiative. Together with HPB and my Healthway
colleagues, we hope to further raise awareness for geriatric depression and allow those
afflicted to know that help is readily available.

Old age can be an especially challenging stage in our lives. Apart from having to
negotiate various losses, individuals may also have to live with medical illnesses. The
latter especially can have an impact on our mood or vice versa. As such, it is not
surprising that the prevalence of depression is significantly higher in the elderly
compared to other age groups,” he added

Mr Lam Pin Woon, President and Executive Director of Healthway said, “We are pleased
to be selected by HPB to provide these mental health screening services to the elderly
residents in the community. This is evident that on top of our well established general
practitioner, specialist, dental and medical aesthetics network of clinics, we have also
built a creditable psychological wellness practice. We are glad to have this great
opportunity to touch the lives of people in Singapore and by doing so, we hope to play
our part to make healthcare more accessible and affordable to the masses.”



Wonder if the above will translate to good financial benefit to healthway?

Thursday, 28 July 2011

Best Bargain Must BUY: ILP

I had just received my ILP half yearly statement today.

I bought this policy from my friend when I first graduated from Uni when I have zero financial knowledge.
I was told that is good as it incorporate both investment and protection. It sound so wonderful to me then.

Let me share how "wonderful" this ILP is.

It is the "best" investment that I had ever invested in.

Policy Title: Manulife Flexi Aggressive portfolio.

Started from Aug 08, deducted $200 every month.
Change to $150/mth on Dec 09

Total premium paid to date: $6250
Current cash value as of July 2011: $1801.45
% gain/(loss): -71.18%

Where can you find such marvellous investment? Even my healthway which is currently at 40% loss cannot fight the 71.18%. Furthermore, you have no control over it.

This is the best investment cum protection plan that you can ever have. Please remember to sign up for it and get free 71.18%!

Sunday, 24 July 2011

Example - Force index bearish divergence

There are many people who talk about force index. My brokerage Iocbc do not have this indicator, thus I dont bother to go and learn.

However, curiosity overwhelm me yesterday. I went to download ChartNexus and read up about Force Index online.

In this post I shall share what I have learnt and understood from my research.

The Force Index is an indicator that uses price and volume to assess the power behind a move or identify possible turning points.

High positive values mean there is a strong rising trend, and low values signify a strong downward trend.

Force Index (1) = {Close (current period) - Close (prior period)} x Volume
Force Index (13) = 13-period EMA of Force Index (1)

To get the value for force index(13)
(1) Draw EMAC(13)
(2) Minus EMAC(13), example 1.1, of today against EMAC(13), example 1.08, of yesterday. You will get 0.02. If the volume today is 50000, Force Index(13) for today is 50000*0.02 = 1000, which is postive force index value above the zero axis. If today's value is lower than yesterday, you will get a negative force index.

Thus, the Force Index is positive when the current close is above the prior close. The Force Index is negative when the current close is below the prior close.

Let me share an example of Bearish Divergence for Force Index.

Tuesday, 19 July 2011

Book summary - Alexandra Elder - Sell and sell short - part 2

How to grade your entries and exit? (as a science person by training, i like calculation. quite interesting, first time see this)

The Buy Grade = the high of the day minus buy price / the high of the day minus the low of the day
The Sell Grade = the sell price minus the low of the day / the high of the day minus the low of the day
You can measure the quality of your buying and selling by comparing your transaction price to that day’s range. When you buy, you want to trade as close to the low of the day as possible. When you sell, you want to trade as close to the high of the day as possible.

The result is expressed as a percentage: if you buy at the low of the day, your grade is 100%, and if you buy the top tick, your grade is 0.

Grades below 25% are poor, above 75% superb, and between 25% and 75% satisfactory.

The result is expressed as a percentage: if you sell at the top tick of the day, your grade is 100%, and if you sell at the bottom tick your grade is 0. Here too, you want to score above 75% for an excellent grade, while anything less than 25% is poor.

IPOs - reflection

Recently, there are quite a number of IPOs coming up. Malacca trust, kitchen culture holdings, 800 super holdings etc.

When I first started 2 years ago, I thought IPOs was very exciting. Within a day it can rise so much and fall so much. Howver, I didn't dare to buy any of these IPOs as I am scare. After seeing some of the IPOs ran up so high on the first day of trade, I sort of regretted why I didn't participate in them.  (but do note, it is on hindsight.)

Recently, I have a different mindset as I realise something. TA and FA rely on historical data which IPOs lack. TA rely on historial phychological support/resistance while FA looks at the fundamental, numbers, business of the company and whether it show good historical durable comparative advantage.

IPOs do not have much historical data. IPOs do not show how the market perceive the price vs value of the company.

Although IPOs is very exciting, but I think it is not the cup of tea for me.

I still prefer:
money management 10-15% per stock/sector-> current market sentiments (be greedy when other are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy) -> FA screen -> TA good price to enter

(Haha, I am really a science student instead of art student, do things must one step follow by another step.)

simple programming

if passion=current job, you=extremely lucky.
              else current job = try to love your job for monthly check

Sunday, 10 July 2011

Book summary - Alexandra Elder - Sell and sell short

 As usually, I like to record what I had read in blog just in case I forget it in future.(only read front portion of books so far.)
  • Limit your loss on any trade to 2% of equity in your trading account.
  • Whenever the value your account dips 6% below its closing value at
    the end of last month, stop trading for the rest of this month.
(meaning if you got 100k in total, per trade max can only lose 2k. If you lose 6k in that month, stop trading, take a break and look though and learn your mistakes.)

His money management rule is so strict. No wonder he can preseve the captial in his portfolio so well. However, I don't think I will follow the above two rules strictly unless I am doing active trading daily.

Instead, I am currently trying to restructure my portfolio with the aim of controlling the amount of money which I put into each type of stocks. I only understand the important of this idea recently. I aim to have around 10-15% per type with no more than 60% invested in current market condition.

Mr Market, please give me a chance to succeed in rearranging!

Example - Daily Bearish Divergence

Previously I had shown few examples on Bullish Divergence, I guess it is the time to record something on the other other extreme - bearish divergence.

Although I been discussing about TA recently, overall I am still a more FA person. Fundamentally strong companies should be first consideration before TA. (of course, money management, psychology and current market sentiments are much more important.) However, its good to learn from both school of thoughts.

I listed 5 vertical lines in this chart.


Price goes higher high but MCAD histogram goes lower high with b crossing below the center line. This indicate bearish divergence.

A few days after c where the red MCAD histogram bar start to appearing is a good sell. 

price decrease and MCAD histogram went below center line

price went up again to previous high but mcad still cannot make it and did not even cross the centre line above. 

If miss the selling few days before at c, this is the second best time to sell.

Friday, 8 July 2011

Sold FR at 0.805 at 8.59am after queuing overnight for many weeks

Sold because of two main reasons.

(1) Recently violate money management rules which I recently set for myself. So i need put money in pocket and restructure entire portfolio

(2) FR NAV should be 0.78. Don't wish to hold reit above NAV although there are still reits holding well above NAV.

Next targets to sell:
1/2 HW

Normally I sell too early, so far after I sold, the shares usually went up. haha, maybe this round same again? But it is okay because I want money in pocket.

Saturday, 2 July 2011

July 2011 Portfolio update

July 2011

Portfolio 1 (self)

Status: Unhealthy, need to reduce stock percentage

Stock 97.4%
  • Sabana
  • Healthway (selling half mode)
  • First reit
  • LippoMaple
  • Capitalmall Asia (hold and pray mode)
Investable Cash 2.6% (but should have new cash coming in soon)

*Investible Cash exclude emergency fund + daily fund

Portfolio 2 (Joint)

Status: Waiting for good opportunity

Stock 19.8%
  • Cache (selling mode)
Investable Cash(exclude emergency fund) 80.2%