Wednesday, 29 February 2012

Perpertual Securities again?

Perpertual Securities must be the latest "in" thing in SGX.


Tuesday, 28 February 2012

Be discipline

Did you notice that you always change your buy and sell price very easily because you got influence by something or someone? In the end, you either missed or buy/sell at a bad price.

I used to do that and still have the tendency to do that, but I am trying to change.

Few strategies which I adopt:
  • I know that I cannot be a discipline frequent trader that keep buy and sell. However, I always has to desire to buy and sell to trade/speculation. (bad me!) Thus, I ensure that no more than 10% of my portfolio per trade. This makes me sleep more peaceful at night.
    (My savings and thus investment captial will grow overtime, hence the majority of capital will still be for growth/undervalue stock with decent yield.)
  • Only speculate bluechips. Fast in fast out. Chances of bluechips bankrupt is lower. (for speculation only.)
  • Write down all my buy and sell price in my handphone. Hp is something which I bring around everywhere and touch it most often everyday, thus it would be the best equipment to remind me that I must not be so emotional.
What are your strategies?

Saturday, 25 February 2012

BreadTalk’s revenue grew 20.8% to $365.9 million in FY2011

  • Group’s revenue grew 20.8% in FY2011 to historical high driven by broadbased
    growth across all businesses and geographical segments.
  • Excluding one time gain on sales of property in FY2010, profit after tax
    attributable to shareholders jumped 63.1% in FY2011 supported by higher
    operating profits across all business segments.
  • Proposed ordinary dividend of 1.0 Singapore cent and special dividend of 0.5
    Singapore cent.
 Using my excel to chun some numbers:

If we look deeper into its numbers,
  • The company is in netcash position of 46.6m (down from 51.8m)
  • Cash and cash equivalents up from 71.1m to 87.0m
  • Total debt increase from 19.3m to 33.5m
  • FCF before divy up from 8.9m to 11.8m 
  • FCF after discounting divy up from 6.1m to 7.6m
  • With special divy of 0.5 (total divy 1.5c), the dividend yield at price of 0.575 is 2.61% (first time paying special dividend!)
  • Dividend payout is at 36.32%
2.61% dividend yield may not seems great but the company is slowly growing in term of revenue and net profit. Given its netcash position and dividend payout of 36.32%, it definitely has room to give more dividend in future.

Currently I am not a shareholder yet but I will be waiting for the right time to enter, perhaps putting 10% of my portfolio to slowly grow with the company.

Where is the bear? Hope it will come after I sell finish :)

Thursday, 23 February 2012

Perpetual Cumulative Securities

Singpost - 23 Feb 2012, Proposed Issue of Singapore Dollar-Denominated Senior Perpetual Cumulative Securities$file/SGXAnn.pdf?openelement

Olam - 23 Feb 2012, PROPOSED ISSUE OF S$275,000,000 7 PER CENT. PERPETUAL CAPITAL SECURITIES$file/23Feb2012-SGDPerps_SGX.pdf?openelement

How come nowaday so many companies issue this thing?

Did a google but couldnt find information on this.

Closest which I can find is :
A type of preferred stock that has no maturity date. The issuers of perpetual preferred stock will always have redemption privileges on such shares. Issued perpetual preferred stock will continue paying dividends indefinitely.

Perpetual Cumulative Securities  - Pay coupons with no call date?

Tuesday, 14 February 2012

Does account size matter?

Does account size matter?

Yes it does! Very often, we would say we earn a return of capital of example 6% after this trade of xxx days.

This 6% seems simple but it is not exactly simple.

6% of 10k = 600
6% of 100k = 6000
6% of 1 mil = 60000
6% of 10 mil = 600000 = 600k
......and so on.

DO you get the story?

Two different investors may say that they have 6% gain, but their absolute gain is different.

Investor A may have 100k in capital and earn 6000 in that trade. However, investor B may have 10 mil in capital and earn 600k gain for 6%. 600k - 6000 = 594000 which is much more than the capital of investor A. In extreme case, even if investor A manage to pick multibaggers and earn 100% in trade, it is only 100k as compared to 600k.

In addition, don't forget that you can diversify or plan the allocation of money easier if you have huge capital. Assuming that you only plan to have no more 10% of your entire portfolio in any stock and each purchase is example 10k.

With huge capital (10 mil), you can keep buying at ALL supports. If this support breaks, you can buy at next support and the amount of money you allocated to this stock still never exceed the planned 10% of your portfolio. Once the market starts to recover, you can slowly sell in batches at different resistance and huat. However, if you have limited capital (100k), you can only buy at one support. If this support break, you cannot add more as it may exceed 10% of your portfolio and need to wait very long to repent and earn profit.

That's why you see some bloggers can keep buying and keep selling at many levels of supports and resistance while some cannot. Ops! who am I referring to? :)

Thus what is the moral of the story?

Account size does matter!!!

Work hard and increase your account size when young! Delay gratification? Don't get marry? eat bread drink water?

Friday, 3 February 2012

Which method(s) should I use?

Many of us including me are always wondering which is the best method to invest/trade? Which books should I read to learn more? Which guru's seminars should I attend so that I can invest/trade better? Which blogs should I visit?


Which method should I use? FA? TA? value investing? value growth investing? dividend investing?

Actually regarding of which methods you use, just make sure it suit you and it works!!

How to know that it suit you? -> make sure you can sleep well every night without worrying about the buy/sell
How to know if it works? -> like what cw always said, measure your performance!

As a summary: 


Thursday, 2 February 2012


Sold AIMS today.

Decide to sold AIMS as it hit resistance of 1.025 and forgo the dividend since today is the last day before xD.

ROC: 6.95%

Will re-enter again when time is right.

(As a personal reference pt, this is the first day where my personal account turns positive with healthway still have xxxx loss!)