Thursday, 30 June 2011

how much money do XXX really owe? anyone can guess what is XXX?

Current Debt Held by the Public Intragovernmental Holdings Total Public Debt Outstanding

Wednesday, 29 June 2011


What kind of person are you?

(1) work very hard, limited worklife balance, strive for promotion and earn a lot?
(2) work bare minimal, strive for a happy work life, earn decent?

(of course there are other options other than the above 2 options)

No matter which choice you take, it boil down to the question, how much is enough? 500k? 800k? 1 million? 10 millions?

Different ppl have different wants and hence indirectly affect their choice of lifestyle. In fact, the wants will change with time, place and with your own's goal.

Thus my advice is:


Could you remember how happy you were when someone passed you a sweet when you were very young?
Or could you remember how hard you work in your office to get more promotion?

Bullish divergence example 2

Copy from previous post:

Bullish divergence:

  • Price form lower low (A->C), MCAD histogram form higher low (a->c)
  • Must have ABC in price chart and abc in histogram chart
  • a and c below center line, b above center line
above only valid and can go long ONLY if
higher time frame show bullish divergence(weekly), current time frame(daily) show bullish divergence



This time round I draw an additional "one" line. If you compare the histogram this "one" line with "a" and "c", the selling pressure ease. Line abc demonstrated divergence. If we add in the support line of 1.86, a good buy will be 1.86 at time of line c which is around slightly more than mid march.

Saturday, 25 June 2011

Bullish divergence trading - example 1

Copy from previous post:

Bullish divergence:

  • Price form lower low (A->C), MCAD histogram form higher low (a->c)
  • Must have ABC in price chart and abc in histogram chart
  • a and c below center line, b above center line
above only valid and can go long ONLY if
higher time frame show bullish divergence(weekly), current time frame(daily) show bullish divergence

From my process of searching through the charts to have a sample of the stringent divergence pattern as describe above in bold, I realise that it is not easy to have such chart available. Most of the time, the chart will not demonstrate ALL of the rules above. No wonder it is such a good trading opportunity once such chart are spotted.

In the example below, the daily chart fulfill the abc and ABC.

However, the weekly chart does not fulfill it at all. 

Stringently, the above does not fulfill the daily and weekly bullish divergence. 
However, in the example above, I am using the daily to demonstrate the bullish divergence. 

In this example, a good buy day will be at the day after the vertical line c-C somewhere slightly before mid march around 3.18.

Friday, 24 June 2011

Bullish divergence trading - guidance from La papillion

This post summarise what I learn from LP, owner of Bullythebear blog. I will follow on with 5 charts after this post for applying and checking what I had understand so far is correct or not. 

Bullish divergence means that the price has a high chance of going up.
The divergence refer to the fact that price and whatever indicator you are seeing, are moving in opposite direction.
Example, if use vol, then a bullish (vol) divergence means that the price showing a lower low, but vol shows a higher low.

If you see a bullish Divergence on weekly and a bullish Divergence on daily, what will you do?

If you see a bearish Divergence on weekly and bearish D on daily, what will you do?

If you see bullish Divergence weekly bearish Divergence daily?
There's no correct ans. First of all, the general guide is to either stay sideline. You can either short it but run fast (since weekly is bullish, so you're going against longer timeframe) but you do not buy

If you see bearish Divergence weekly bullish Divergence daily?
hold sideline. can long it but must run fast.

Once weekly and daily sentiments are matched, go in the direction of that sentiment


Psychologically, the price goes down at A but rises up to break the back of the bear at B, then goes down one more round at C.

But you'll notice that the selling pressure at C is weaker than at A, by looking at the macd histogram the selling has eased off when it reaches C...that's where it's the best time to counter trend and bet on a reversal. Buy once it goes above the price of A. Could add in support and resistances too.

Must have ABC in price and abc in macd histogram. point B indicate the breaking of the back of the bear.

Courtesy from
"The concept of triple screen trading is this: Do not trade in the current time frame unless the upper time frame allows you to trade."

Analogy of bullish divergence on two time frame.
The current time frame is like order from your direct boss whereas the upper time frame is like order from your biggest boss. Big boss determine the stronger trend and rule but sometimes direct boss try to disobey the big boss but it may or may not be successful. As you are only a small fry, you have no choice but to listen to both bosses, but the overall power still in the hand of the biggest boss.

If biggest boss pass down a rule, direct boss try to disobey and cause big anger from biggest boss. As the biggest boss is biggest, you should not disobey. Biggest boss pass down rule 2, direct boss disobey again but manage to succeed one time. Biggest boss pass down rule 3, this time the direct boss try to disobey again. Although there is anger from the biggest boss again, but the anger was much milder as compare to the first time. This shows that there is a probability that the direct boss got chance to break out of the rule of the biggest boss. Thisis the best chance to bet against the biggest boss.

Updated below: Summary
Bullish divergence:
  • Price form lower low (A->C), MCAD histogram form higher low (a->c)
  • Must have ABC in price chart and abc in histogram chart
  • a and c below center line, b above center line
above only valid and can go long ONLY if
higher time frame show bullish divergence(weekly), current time frame(daily) show bullish divergence

Friday, 17 June 2011

Good article to know more about Greece debt crisis


Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou sacrificed his unpopular finance minister on Friday and gave the job to party rival Evangelos Venizelos, previously in charge of defence. [ID:nLDE75G0CY]
The leaders of France and Germany said they were united behind a new aid package for Greece in which banks that hold Greek debt would voluntarily shoulder some of the burden. [ID:nLDE75G0WW]

Greece has a sovereign debt pile of 340 billion euros ($481.5 billion), more than 30,000 euros per person in a population of 11.3 million. It has been rescued once already, accepting a 110 billion euro bailout last year from the European Union and International Monetary Fund. But that has proved insufficient and a second package worth 120 billion euros is now under discussion. Until future funding is agreed, at least in principle, doubt hangs over payment of the next 12 billion euro slice of the first package, which is due on June 29. With its debt equivalent to 150 percent of annual output, Greece holds two unwanted world records: the lowest credit rating for a sovereign state, and the most expensive debt to insure. Its people have run out of patience with an ever-deepening austerity drive that has slashed public sector wages by a fifth and pensions by a tenth, and violent protests broke out in Athens this week.
Analysis on Papandreou reshuffle [ID:nLDE75E0TK]
Other stories on euro zone crisis [ID:nLDE68T0MG]
Graphics on debt crisis
Bank exposure interactive map
Factbox detailing new austerity [ID:nLDE759159]
Timeline [ID:nLDE75D0WB]
The longer the crisis drags on, the greater the risk that contagion will spread to other troubled euro zone economies like Ireland and Portugal, which have also been bailed out before, and Spain, which is much bigger and would be far more expensive -- perhaps too expensive -- to rescue.
A default by Greece would hammer the banks that hold its debt, including the European Central Bank and big French and German lenders. [ID:nLDE75F0IN]
It could also prompt credit markets to freeze up, as happened after Lehman's collapse when banks virtually stopped lending to each other.
The White House said on June 16 the Greek crisis was acting as a headwind to the U.S. economy but opinions vary as to the level of exposure of U.S. banks. [ID:nWNA1203] [ID:nN16165734]
A Greek default would be a catastrophe and a humiliation for the European Union, which launched the euro in 1999 as its most ambitious project and a symbol of the continent's unity. It has prompted some commentators to think the unthinkable: that the euro zone might break up, either by the expulsion of Greece or the departure of Germany, the EU's paymaster, which might be tempted to return to its own currency.
The EU's big players -- notably Germany, France and the European Central Bank -- have struggled to work out a rescue mechanism. European governments are keen to avoid a "hard default" as that could threaten banks throughout the euro zone and further afield. [ID:nFLAGHE7OH]
They are therefore discussing a "soft landing" in the form of a debt extension or voluntary rollover by creditors, but some of the proposals have been criticised as default by another name.

Under increasing pressure from street unrest and a split in his own party, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou tried unsuccessfully this week to form a national unity government. He gave the finance portfolio on Friday to Evangelos Venizelos, a party rival. Venizelos is a political heavyweight who ran the preparations for the 2004 Athens Olympics, but has no economic track record.
At the European level, the single most influential figure is German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as head of the EU's biggest economy. Merkel, who is losing popularity and has suffered a string of defeats in state elections, is under intense pressure from a German public that resents footing the bill for what is widely seen as Greek profligacy -- hence her insistence that banks should share some of the pain. Merkel has been accused of holding up the second Greek aid package, further eroding investor confidence which could make the bailout more expensive. [ID:nLDE75F0ST]
Public anger over austerity -- including curbs on widespread early retirement, tax rises and cuts in benefits and wages -- has erupted into frequent strikes and protests, some of them violent. Unemployment is rising. In a poll last month, 80 percent of people said they refused to make any more sacrifices to get more EU/IMF aid. Bank and utility workers, public sector contractors and even doctors have taken to the streets. Private sector workers blame the bloated public sector, civil servants blame tax cheats and many Greeks blame corrupt politicians for the country's problems.
"The big problem of Greek society is the tendency to consider somebody else is responsible for everything that goes wrong," said analyst Theodore Couloumbis. [ID:nLDE75F1PT]

Greece, whose economy had grown strongly but suffered problems with corruption and bureaucracy, joined the euro zone a decade ago, linking its economy to other European countries.
It went into recession in 2009 after 15 years of growth and its budget deficit hit 15.4 percent of GDP after a series of revisions by the government which revealed the country's economy was in far worse shape than it had previously admitted.
Chronic problems include rampant tax evasion -- the labour minister has estimated a quarter of the economy pays nothing.
More broadly, the Greek crisis reflects an inherent weakness in the structure of the euro -- a currency zone with a 'one size fits all' interest rate for a set of widely divergent economies, and 17 different countries running their own fiscal policies. How the crisis plays out will determine the failure or survival of the project. (Writing by Mark Trevelyan and Philippa Fletcher) ($1=.7061 Euro)

Reminder to myself: Don't average down without proper money management

Type of candlesticks

Reminder to myself

Cheap can get cheaper.

Tuesday, 14 June 2011

Change of job

I just changed my job and will be starting work on 20th June. Technicially I am unemployed for this week.

I will need time to adapt and get used to my new life and as well exploring further opportunities in increasing my earning power.

In addition, I need to find out what is the purpose in life. 

Thus may not be updating my site often.

Maybe this is quarterlife crisis similar to midlife crisis of AK.


Wednesday, 8 June 2011

June Portfolio Update

June 2011

Portfolio 1 (self)
Status: Unhealthy, need to reduce stock percentage

Stock 98%
  • Sabana
  • Healthway (selling mode)
  • First Reit
  • LippoMaple
  • Capitalmall Asia (selling mode)
Investable Cash 2% (but should have new cash coming in soon)

*Investible Cash exclude emergency fund + daily fund

Portfolio 2 (Joint)
Status: Waiting for good opportunity

Stock - Cache 20%
Investable Cash(exclude emergency fund) 80%

Thursday, 2 June 2011

Final sold the rights for healthway and use it to buy toto

The feeling to cut a bit of tumor is good....but the rest of tumor I still NATOing...which is bad.

16:XX:XX 0.0150 XX,XXX Sold To Buyer