Friday, 20 May 2011

Sharing on how to be emotionless

This afternoon many of us are chatting on cbox.

Suddenly came out with a logic on being emotionless in trading.

If you seen $XXX,XXX loses before, you will not feel "kan Jiong" on $XX,XXX losses.
If you seen $XX,XXX loses before, you will not feel "kan Jiong" on $X,XXX losses.
If you seen $X,XXX loses before, you will not feel "kan Jiong" on $XXX losses. 
If you seen $XXX loses before, you will not feel "kan Jiong" on $XX losses.

That's why big shark can easily eat you and cause you to feel "kan Jiong". (They are not "kan Jiong" but you are.)

Thus, I think money/portfolio Management is more important. It is crucial to take calculated risk and put the amount that you will not feel so much emotional strains on each stock that you have. As such, you will not "kan Jiong" on buying as you scare of losing profits. Similarly, "Kan Jiong" on selling as you felt pain on the losses and wanted to cut loss.

I am at "If you seen $X,XXX loses before, you will not feel "kan Jiong" on $XXX losses." Where are you?

Thursday, 19 May 2011


Lippo Karawaci Tbk (LPKR) today announced plans to issue Rp957 billion or approximately US$112
million through a direct placement to Lippo Group (LIPPO) to fund the bulk of the acquisition of a
27.24% controlling stake of Singapore-listed Lippo-Mapletree Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIRT) and a
40% interest in its asset manager Lippo Mapletree Indonesia Retail Trust Management Ltd (LMIRT
Mgt) that will propel LPKR's mall and asset management to a US$4 billion business in 3-4 years.

These initiatives will put LMIRT and LMIRT Mgt fully aligned with LPKR's Lippo Malls Group allowing
LPKR to carry through its plan to inject and facilitate US$2 billion of mall assets into LMIRT over the
next three years. This will add to LMIRT's US$798 million mall assets it currently owns and build it up
to US$4 billion in mall assets under management in 5 years making LPKR's third pillar, its Lippo Malls
group a solid foundation along with its other foundations.$file/LPKR_Announcement_19May11.pdf?openelement

Monday, 16 May 2011

TA plain and simple - Michael Kahn

If you can find at least three of the following characteristics in a stock, the chances are you
will pick a winner:

■ Rising price trend as more and more investors jump aboard.
■ Rising volume as investors become more aggressive in their
■ Strong, but not excessive, price momentum.Anything higher
indicates that supply and demand got out of synch.
■ Strong sector. If the sector is doing well, there is likely to be
enough business for all stocks in it.
■ Strong market. A rising tide raises most boats.
■ Supportive environment. Low input prices, high output prices,
low cost of doing business, and favorable supply and demand in
the industry.

Why go up and down?
The majority of investors are usually most optimistic at a market top
and most pessimistic at a market bottom. The more optimistic or pessimistic
the majority is, generally, the more significant the top or bottom
is. Why? This bears repeating: When everyone is so bullish, they
have already stepped up their buying activity, and there are few people
left to buy.Without more bulls, the market cannot go up. The converse
is true at bottoms when the bears become exhausted.

When a ball is thrown up into the air, its speed (velocity) declines until
it stops momentarily in mid-air and then starts to fall.While the ball is
still rising, its speed is falling. Markets exhibit this behavior as well.
Determine that the speed of rising prices is declining, and be forewarned
that a market top may be near.
For falling markets, another analogy can be used. Take the same ball to
the top of a hill and let it go. As it rolls down the hill, it gains speed.
When it gets to the bottom, it is still moving, but since the ground is
now flat, its speed starts to decline.
These examples help to show that a market will tend to continue in the
same direction in which it is moving until some force acts upon it.
These forces are called support and resistance. If a market is moving
but does not meet either support or resistance, it will continue to
move in the direction of the trend, but at slower and slower speeds
until it stops, like a tired long-distance runner. The buying or selling
pressures that powered the move have dissipated. If prices make lower
lows but momentum makes higher lows, downside market momentum
is declining.

The least understood area of analysis is sentiment analysis. This covers
such areas as degree of speculation, public opinion, and consensus. It
is measured by relative activities in speculative instruments, such as
options, and polls of bullish opinions. Both rely on the “burning
match” theory in which the flame is passed from investor to investor
until there is nobody left to take the match. The last one holding it gets
burned, literally. In the markets, as bullish opinion spreads, eventually
everyone will have bought. There will be nobody left to whom the last
investors can sell. No demand means the end of the rally. This can also
be measured subjectively in the media as glowing bullish news is
reported only when the newspaper buyer and TV viewer are ready to
receive it. Again, when the public has an overall bullish consensus,
there is nobody left to buy.

RSI vs Stochastics
RSI still yields the meaningful results in trending markets. Stochastics seems to work better
in flat or choppy markets. Although the goal of each is similar, they
were designed with different specific purposes. The RSI, as mentioned,
helps determine when a price has moved too far too fast, and this
implies a trending market. Stochastics helps determine when a price has
moved to the top or bottom of a trading range, which implies a nontrending
(flat or choppy) market.

Sunday, 15 May 2011

Which is a more realistic way of calculating portfolio return?

 Came out with some hypothetical numbers to calculate investment return.

Should I just include cash from earned income + investment gain as part of calculation? 
Or should I only include investment gain to calculate?
Or simply just calculate how much is your absolute profits? which in the example above is 63400-60000=3400

Money and mind Management

The more I invest the more I feel that money and mind management is one of the more important aspect of investing, might be even more important than superior TA and FA. I believe that many of the investors including me encounter one or more of the following:
  1. Use TA and FA and found a good price to enter a stock. However, the investor does not have enough money to invest at that moment due to lack of funds or over invested
  2. Have too much money not invested but miss the chance to enter at GSS due to fear in mind
  3. Have too much money not invested and anyhow enter the market without proper analysis due to itchy hand and mind. 
Thus it is important to train your mind to buy low sell high while having a proper money management such that you will not be over or under invested.

Saturday, 14 May 2011


Comparing slope of OBV and MFI vs slope of the price over the recent weeks. There seems to a possible divergence occuring. Price drop lower, but MFI and OBV does not decline as fast.

MCAD also indicates more green histogram slowly edging over the centre line.

Will reversal occur? Might be possible but needs to be patience.

If it drop further, I will not cut loss. Instead might add more positions at 1.60 if I got more money.

Tuesday, 10 May 2011

TA plain and simple - Michael Kahn

Some common continual patterns:
  1. rectangle
  2. triangle (ascending, descending, symmetrical)
  3. flags
  4. cup with handles
Some common reversal patterns:
  1. head and shoulders
  2. double tops and bottoms
  3. one day reversal
  4. triangles and rectangles
  5. rounded tops and bottoms
  6. spikes

The above chart patterns can be easily found on this internet, thus I am not putting examples of the chart here. However, it is not that easy to recognise these patterns on real life chart. Slowly will know more if see more charts everyday. And volume plays a big part in these patterns too.

Healthway Got lawsuit?$file/HMC_LegalAction_20110510.pdf?openelement

Singapore, 10 May 2011 –The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Healthway Medical
Corporation Limited (the “Company”) wishes to announce that on 25 January 2011,
Cyrus Capital Consulting (“Cyrus”) filed a Writ of Summons in the High Court of the
Republic of Singapore against Healthway Medical Group Pte Ltd (“HMG”), a subsidiary
of the Company, for a total sum of S$779,981.61 (or alternatively, damages to be
assessed), plus interest on the said amount and costs. Cyrus has alleged that certain
consulting fees, performance bonuses and commissions pursuant to a services contract
entered into between Cyrus and HMG in March 2009 remain due and payable.
HMG is resisting the entire claim by Cyrus. On 11 April 2011, Cyrus filed an application
for Summary Judgment, which is fixed for hearing on 27 May 2011. HMG will be
resisting this application and applying for unconditional leave to defend the action by
Cyrus. The Company's lawyers, have appraised and evaluated the merits of the
Company's defence to Cyrus' claims and are of the opinion that HMG has a good
defence to the case.
None of the Directors or substantial shareholders of the Company has any interest,
direct or indirect, in the aforesaid legal action.
The Company will make the necessary announcements as and when appropriate in due
By Order of the Board
Lam Pin Woon
President and Executive Director
10 May 2011


Good luck to me.

Sunday, 8 May 2011

A 'Thank You' letter from Nicole Seah


My friends, my fellow Singaporeans,

We may have lost an election but tonight we have rediscovered something so much more valuable - the pride of being Singaporeans. My fellow party members and I began all of this because we felt that we needed to speak up not just for you, but also ourselves.
The competition has been robust; sides were taken and things were said. But now that the contest is over, we must come together as one country and work to build that future we want.
When we choose our leaders, we ask of them not just their industry but also their judgment. We may not always agree with our government, but it is our responsibility to engage them in intelligent debate so that policies made in our name serve the common good.
Tonight our hearts are with Mr Low Thia Kiang and the Workers' Party. They have made political history in Singapore and they have made us proud. For the next 5 years, we will depend on them to be our voices in Parliament. We are comforted that we will be well represented.
The great joy we feel at the election of the Workers' Party is matched only by our profound sadness at the exit tonight of two great men from the political scene.
We want to pay tribute to Mr George Yeo, the outgoing Foreign Minister. Not since the tenure of the late Mr S Rajaratnam has anyone defined our foreign policy like Mr Yeo. A soldier, a scholar, a statesman. And to top it all off, a perfect gentleman. We hope that he will consider a run for the Presidency later this year. We believe he will be another peoples' President and we cannot think of a better person to continue representing us to the world.
We also want to express our gratitude to Mr Chiam See Tiong who together with the late J B Jeyaretnam fought for ordinary Singaporeans at a time when it was much tougher for opposition politicians. Mr Chiam, all Singaporeans owe you a debt of gratitude and we salute you. We will carry on the work you began.
And so my friends, in closing I just want to remind all of you that while the votes have been cast and tallied, the work has just begun.
We know the kind of Singapore we want - we have been talking about it for months now. The time for talk is over; lets get it done.

Nicole Seah
NSP Candidate for Marine Parade GRC
GE 2011

Wednesday, 4 May 2011

Transactions today!

Sold Cit 0.495. profit 700+ ROC 4% exclude dividend
Bought Banana 0.935

The main objective of the above transaction is to put money in pocket for better stock/cash allocation.

Monday, 2 May 2011

Portfolio Update: 2011 May

May 2011

Portfolio 1
Status: Unhealthy, need to reduce stock percentage

Stock 89.2%
  • Cambridge
  • Healthway
  • First Reit
  • LippoMaple
Investable Cash(exclude emergency fund + daily fund) 10.8%

*Investible Cash

Portfolio 2 
Status: Waiting for good opportunity

Stock - Cache 23%
Investable Cash(exclude emergency fund) 77%

*Edited post: Forgot to exclude emergency fund for Portfolio 2.