Thursday, 30 June 2011

how much money do XXX really owe? anyone can guess what is XXX?

Current Debt Held by the Public Intragovernmental Holdings Total Public Debt Outstanding
06/28/20119,731,228,079,037.894,613,217,240,768.5014,344,445,319,806.39


















Wednesday, 29 June 2011

知足常乐

What kind of person are you?

(1) work very hard, limited worklife balance, strive for promotion and earn a lot?
(2) work bare minimal, strive for a happy work life, earn decent?

(of course there are other options other than the above 2 options)

No matter which choice you take, it boil down to the question, how much is enough? 500k? 800k? 1 million? 10 millions?

Different ppl have different wants and hence indirectly affect their choice of lifestyle. In fact, the wants will change with time, place and with your own's goal.

Thus my advice is:

人生苦短,生不带来,死不带去,知足常乐吧!

Could you remember how happy you were when someone passed you a sweet when you were very young?
Or could you remember how hard you work in your office to get more promotion?

Bullish divergence example 2

Copy from previous post:


Bullish divergence:


  • Price form lower low (A->C), MCAD histogram form higher low (a->c)
  • Must have ABC in price chart and abc in histogram chart
  • a and c below center line, b above center line
above only valid and can go long ONLY if
higher time frame show bullish divergence(weekly), current time frame(daily) show bullish divergence


Daily


Weekly


This time round I draw an additional "one" line. If you compare the histogram this "one" line with "a" and "c", the selling pressure ease. Line abc demonstrated divergence. If we add in the support line of 1.86, a good buy will be 1.86 at time of line c which is around slightly more than mid march.

Saturday, 25 June 2011

Bullish divergence trading - example 1

Copy from previous post:


Bullish divergence:

  • Price form lower low (A->C), MCAD histogram form higher low (a->c)
  • Must have ABC in price chart and abc in histogram chart
  • a and c below center line, b above center line
above only valid and can go long ONLY if
higher time frame show bullish divergence(weekly), current time frame(daily) show bullish divergence



From my process of searching through the charts to have a sample of the stringent divergence pattern as describe above in bold, I realise that it is not easy to have such chart available. Most of the time, the chart will not demonstrate ALL of the rules above. No wonder it is such a good trading opportunity once such chart are spotted.

In the example below, the daily chart fulfill the abc and ABC.


However, the weekly chart does not fulfill it at all. 


Stringently, the above does not fulfill the daily and weekly bullish divergence. 
However, in the example above, I am using the daily to demonstrate the bullish divergence. 

In this example, a good buy day will be at the day after the vertical line c-C somewhere slightly before mid march around 3.18.

Friday, 24 June 2011

Bullish divergence trading - guidance from La papillion

This post summarise what I learn from LP, owner of Bullythebear blog. I will follow on with 5 charts after this post for applying and checking what I had understand so far is correct or not. 

Bullish divergence means that the price has a high chance of going up.
The divergence refer to the fact that price and whatever indicator you are seeing, are moving in opposite direction.
Example, if use vol, then a bullish (vol) divergence means that the price showing a lower low, but vol shows a higher low.

If you see a bullish Divergence on weekly and a bullish Divergence on daily, what will you do?
long

If you see a bearish Divergence on weekly and bearish D on daily, what will you do?
short

If you see bullish Divergence weekly bearish Divergence daily?
There's no correct ans. First of all, the general guide is to either stay sideline. You can either short it but run fast (since weekly is bullish, so you're going against longer timeframe) but you do not buy

If you see bearish Divergence weekly bullish Divergence daily?
hold sideline. can long it but must run fast.

Once weekly and daily sentiments are matched, go in the direction of that sentiment

Example:


Psychologically, the price goes down at A but rises up to break the back of the bear at B, then goes down one more round at C.

But you'll notice that the selling pressure at C is weaker than at A, by looking at the macd histogram the selling has eased off when it reaches C...that's where it's the best time to counter trend and bet on a reversal. Buy once it goes above the price of A. Could add in support and resistances too.

Must have ABC in price and abc in macd histogram. point B indicate the breaking of the back of the bear.




Courtesy from http://triple-screentrading.info/blog/?page_id=813
"The concept of triple screen trading is this: Do not trade in the current time frame unless the upper time frame allows you to trade."

Analogy of bullish divergence on two time frame.
The current time frame is like order from your direct boss whereas the upper time frame is like order from your biggest boss. Big boss determine the stronger trend and rule but sometimes direct boss try to disobey the big boss but it may or may not be successful. As you are only a small fry, you have no choice but to listen to both bosses, but the overall power still in the hand of the biggest boss.

If biggest boss pass down a rule, direct boss try to disobey and cause big anger from biggest boss. As the biggest boss is biggest, you should not disobey. Biggest boss pass down rule 2, direct boss disobey again but manage to succeed one time. Biggest boss pass down rule 3, this time the direct boss try to disobey again. Although there is anger from the biggest boss again, but the anger was much milder as compare to the first time. This shows that there is a probability that the direct boss got chance to break out of the rule of the biggest boss. Thisis the best chance to bet against the biggest boss.

Updated below: Summary
Bullish divergence:
  • Price form lower low (A->C), MCAD histogram form higher low (a->c)
  • Must have ABC in price chart and abc in histogram chart
  • a and c below center line, b above center line
above only valid and can go long ONLY if
higher time frame show bullish divergence(weekly), current time frame(daily) show bullish divergence